But a little-reported tidbit in the National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” was the future of organized crime, and the possibility that transnational organized crime could one day take over energy markets and even entire countries.
“Crime could be the gravest threat inside Europe as Eurasian transnational organizations—flush from involvement in energy and mineral concerns—become more powerful and broaden their scope,” said the report. “One or more governments in Eastern or Central Europe could fall prey to their domination.”
Nations at Risk
The Center for Public Integrity’s daily blog listed the governments: “Topping the list of potential Mafia states: Moldova, that ex-Soviet cauldron of crime and corruption, and the Balkan nations of Albania and its newly-founded neighbor Kosovo, known for their ruthless drug trafficking syndicates. Also on the list: Latvia, new European Union member Bulgaria, and various other Balkan states, including Serbia.”
Russia, the report indicated, could be one of the bases for a “shadow international system” by 2025, as transnational organized crime supplements its income from the global drug trade with investments in energy, minerals and other markets.Â
Energy Demands Fuel Fears
“Increased demand for energy worldwide provides opportunities for criminals to expand their activities through direct ties to energy suppliers and leaders of countries where suppliers are located,” said the report. “With energy supplies increasingly concentrated in countries with poor governance, longstanding practices of corruption, and an absence of the rule of law, the potential for penetration by organized crime is high.”
The probability of such penetration is greater in Eurasian countries “where organized crime has been an institutionalized part of the political and economic environment and where over time organized crime figures have evolved into influential businessmen and become valuable partners for corrupt officials.”
And as Russian and Eurasian countries gain a bigger share of energy production, the criminal networks based in the area will most likely also expand, turning the countries more corrupt and influencing policies to their advantage.
-- Beth Kampschror
